Double or Nothing
Double or nothing allows you to bet your entire tangerine stash against winning back your stash twice. Odds The odds start at 50%. However, it can be changed from the bottom right by adding 1% increments to tip the balance in your favor. This can also be increased via perks. Maximum win chance is 75%. The cost for upgrading gamble chance by 1% with perks: Perks (This persists between multiverse breaches.) The cost for upgrading gamble chance by 1% with tangerines (which does not persist between multiverse breaches): Achievements There are 5 achievements associated with this page: * Bad Gamble - Lose a thousand tangerines in a single gamble * Good Gamble - Win a million tangerines in a single gamble * Oh No - Lose a billion tangerines in a single gamble * OH YES - Win 1 e^13 tangerines in a single gamble * Pengrine21591 - Lose 2.48 e^66 in a single gamble Optimizing bet size with Kelly Citerion With Kelly citerion, bet size can be controlled to achieve continous growth of the stack. The return on any single bet is (1) R=(1+n)^x*(1-n)^(x-1), where n is the fraction of your tangerine to bet and x is your winning probability. To find the optimal return on a bet, we have to find the roots of the derivative of this function ∂R/∂n = -(1-n)^-x*(1+n)^(x-1)*(n-2x+1) = 0 The roots are n=-1, n=1, and n=2x-1 (only the last root proves valuable) '''(2) n=2x-1 '''n is the optimal bet amount for win odds x For example, if you win 62% of the time you should only bet 24% of your stack. This could be done by purchasing 2 stock with 50% of your value. You will be left with 25% of your original value (close to 24%) and can use this value for betting. After you place a bet, regardless of the outcome, you should cash in your stock and start over again. (Growth rate of your capital in this example is approximately 3% for each bet. Doubling time is about 24 bets) If you win 75% of the time, you should bet 50% of your stack each time. (Growth rate of your capital is approximately 14% for each bet, doubling time is about 5.3 bets). If each betting round takes 4 seconds (can be taken down to 2 seconds with the use of scripting) it should take just under 6 hours to get the "The Fulliverse" achievement. It is not worthwhile to use this technique until win odds are above 60% as the average growth is only 2%. Bet intervals of 1/32 (3.1%) can be chosen by using all 5 stocks. Below is a list of useful stock investment percentages. Remember that your bet percentage is percentage. .75 1 2 .719 1 2 3 4 5, sell 2 .688 1 2 3 4, sell 2 .656 1 2 3 4 5, sell 2 4 .625 1 2 3 sell 2 .594 1 2 3 4 5 sell 2 3 .563 1 2 3 4 sell 2 3 .531 1 2 3 4 5 sell 2 3 4 .5 1 if you wanna practice gambling play it or else. Category:Pages